Possible scenario
Palestinian Territories Escalate
28% Chance
The incident spreads beyond Jerusalem into the West Bank and Gaza, with Palestinian factions treating the raid as a direct challenge to the status quo at the compound. The probability is meaningful because Al Aqsa has repeatedly served as a mobilizing symbol across Palestinian communities.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.6%
- Energy +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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