Possible scenario
Regulators Add Guardrails
25% Chance
Regulators allow the broader rollout to continue but focus on valuation haircuts, custody segregation, risk disclosures and treatment of corporate actions. This scenario fits the SEC’s recent pilot approach: supervised expansion rather than outright prohibition.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.