Possible scenario
Coordinated De-Escalation
25% Chance
A coordinated response by the IEA, G7 governments, and Gulf producers could convince traders that the supply shock is manageable. This would likely compress the geopolitical premium and shift attention back toward spare capacity and inventories.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.8%
- Consumer Services +1.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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