Possible scenario
Contained Gulf Risk
45% Chance
The most likely path is continued elevated risk premium without a decisive disruption to Gulf exports. Iran-linked threats, Houthi attacks, and refinery vulnerability keep Brent supported, but the IEA reserve plan and producer hedging prevent a disorderly spike.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Industrials -0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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