Possible scenario
Progressive Momentum Builds
25% Chance
The Omar raid and the DHS non-criminal enforcement surge give abolition advocates a concrete organizing point. The bill still faces long odds, but it could reshape the Democratic immigration platform and put pressure on party leadership.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
- GEO-1.3%
- CXW-1.3%
- PLTR-0.6%
- LDOS-0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.