Possible scenario
Marshall Wins Rebuttal
20% Chance
Marshall's campaign could succeed in reframing the ad as misleading, especially if the arrest claim rests on an indirect legal process rather than a direct action by Marshall. A strong fact-check or broadcaster pullback would let Marshall argue that the opponent crossed a line.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.