Possible scenario
Fiscal Credibility Questioned
23% Chance
Investors become less convinced that the yen can be supported by competitiveness policy if the package appears debt-funded or politically fragmented. The yen narrative weakens, and markets focus on Japan's high public-debt burden and the risk of renewed fiscal slippage.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.7%
- Finance -0.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.