Possible scenario
Bo Xilai Network Revived
25% Chance
Investigators use Huang's long service under Bo Xilai to reopen politically sensitive Chongqing-era cases. This would signal that Xi's loyalty-corruption purge is still targeting old factional networks rather than merely local graft.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.7%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.