Possible scenario
Compute Governance Deal
27% Chance
The accord becomes tied to frontier-compute access, data-center security, and federal certification for advanced training runs. This connects AI safety policy directly to Stargate-scale infrastructure investment, power procurement, and chip deployment.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Copper Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +1.2%
- Industrials +0.4%
- Telecommunications -0.2%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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