Possible scenario
Partial Recovery
30% Chance
SpaceX achieves another booster recovery but does not complete the more difficult Starship catch. This is a realistic outcome because Super Heavy catching has already been demonstrated, while Starship orbital reentry, guidance, and tower capture remain newer and riskier.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
- SPCX+1.7%
- RKLB-0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.