Possible scenario
Dual Catch Succeeds
38% Chance
SpaceX executes the most ambitious version of Flight 15, catching both Super Heavy and Starship at the same launch tower. This would validate the central architecture for rapid Starship reuse and materially improve confidence in SpaceX's Mars, lunar, and Starlink deployment timelines.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
Tickers
- SPCX+5.8%
- RKLB-1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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