Possible scenario
Israel Escalates Operations
20% Chance
Israel may judge that security risks from Iran-linked networks or Syrian deployments outweigh European diplomatic criticism. Renewed strikes would widen the gap between Brussels and Jerusalem and complicate Syria's effort to convert sanctions relief into reconstruction financing.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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