Possible scenario
Limited Oil Waivers
25% Chance
Washington explores a narrow sanctions carve-out to stabilize oil markets and create space for nuclear talks. The relief is likely conditional, temporary, and tied to escrow payments or caps on Chinese purchases of Iranian crude.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Industrials +0.3%
- Healthcare +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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