Possible scenario
JCPOA Talks Restart
18% Chance
Xi's intervention helps reopen a formal diplomatic track involving the U.S., Iran, China, the EU, and Oman. A full JCPOA restoration remains difficult after European snapback sanctions, but markets would treat verified talks as a meaningful de-escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.6%
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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