Possible scenario
Diplomacy Without Deal
45% Chance
Xi's appeal produces public diplomacy but no immediate U.S. sanctions rollback. Trump keeps maximum-pressure leverage in place while allowing lower-level U.S.-China and Oman-channel discussions to continue.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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