Possible scenario
Sovereignty Standoff Continues
27% Chance
The UK government refuses any arrangement that looks like renewed CJEU jurisdiction, even if narrowly confined to EU systems. Talks continue, but the November summit produces only general language on migration cooperation.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -0.2%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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