Possible scenario
Legal Workaround Emerges
21% Chance
Negotiators search for a middle route that gives the EU legal enforceability without forcing the UK to concede direct CJEU jurisdiction. This is politically attractive but slower and more complex than a straightforward court-oversight deal.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.2%
- Technology +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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