Scenario description
Assume the U.K. government formally makes renewed European Union membership an official policy or negotiating objective. The initiating event is an official government statement, command paper, white paper, parliamentary statement, or equivalent mandate from Prime Minister Andy Burnham, the Cabinet Office, Foreign Office, or Department for Business and Trade that commits the government to pursue EU re-entry rather than only to study options. The geography is the United Kingdom and the European Union. Known reported constraints include warnings that membership could add about £5 billion per year to U.K. costs through loss of the Thatcher budget rebate, that post-2020 U.K. free-trade agreements would effectively be voided, and that EU counterparts view freedom of movement as non-negotiable; precise accession terms, transition periods, budget contributions, and treaty treatment are unavailable.