Possible scenario
Orderly Yield Extension
40% Chance
The most likely near-term path is a controlled continuation of the Treasury selloff as investors reprice term premium, fiscal supply and a higher-for-longer Fed. Markets absorb the move without a clear liquidity break, but rate-sensitive equities remain under pressure.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -1.7%
- Technology -1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.