Possible scenario
Scrub Or Delay
20% Chance
SpaceX reaches the countdown window but does not launch because of weather, range safety, ground-system, or vehicle-readiness constraints. This is common for large launch vehicles and would usually be viewed as a timing issue rather than a fundamental failure.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.1%
Tickers
- SPCX-1.7%
- RKLB+0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.