Possible scenario
Partial Flight Failure
31% Chance
The launch proceeds, but Starship fails to complete the full orbital test profile. This remains plausible because first-of-kind integrated launch systems often expose failure modes only during actual flight.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.5%
Tickers
- SPCX-4.0%
- RKLB+1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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