Possible scenario
On-Time Mission Success
42% Chance
SpaceX launches close to the targeted 7:46 a.m. CT window and demonstrates the core capabilities needed for Starship’s orbital program. This is the most favorable outcome because SpaceX has had years of test, FAA review, and iterative engineering since the April 2023 explosion.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
- Technology +0.3%
Tickers
- SPCX+6.0%
- ASTS+1.5%
- RKLB-0.9%
- BA+0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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