Possible scenario
Limited Retaliatory Cycle
45% Chance
Pakistan keeps using airstrikes and drones against alleged Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan positions inside Afghanistan, while Taliban forces respond with limited artillery fire and drone probes. Both sides avoid a full ground offensive because Islamabad wants to punish cross-border attacks without overextending and Kabul wants to preserve internal cohesion.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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