Possible scenario
Brokered De-escalation
25% Chance
Qatar, Saudi Arabia, China, or Turkey pushes both sides into a temporary pause to prevent the war from disrupting trade routes and refugee flows. Pakistan claims deterrence was restored, while Taliban authorities promise new action against selected TTP figures without formally conceding sovereignty.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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