Possible scenario
Putin Attends Miami
25% Chance
Putin may decide that attending the G20 gives Russia valuable diplomatic legitimacy and a direct channel to President Donald Trump. The United States would likely rely on head-of-state protocols and extensive security arrangements to avoid an ICC-related confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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