Possible scenario
Invite Faces Backlash
20% Chance
The invitation could trigger criticism from Ukraine, European governments, human-rights groups, and members of Congress because of the ICC warrant and the ongoing war. The White House may keep the invitation but narrow its scope, or it may quietly shift toward a lower-level Russian delegation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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