Possible scenario
Russia Retaliates Militarily
17% Chance
Moscow responds to the expanded Belgian shipment by increasing strikes on Ukrainian airbases, logistics nodes, and aircraft shelters. This would be a meaningful battlefield escalation but still below a NATO-Russia direct-conflict threshold, so immediate market shocks are modest.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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