Possible scenario
Slowdown Broadens
25% Chance
The Philly Fed decline proves to be an early sign that tariff costs and softer demand are weighing on manufacturers again. Investors reassess the strength of the autumn manufacturing rebound and mark down cyclical exposure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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