Possible scenario
Relief Deal Unravels
18% Chance
The bargain falters when Lukashenko either limits releases to symbolic cases or renews repression after receiving initial concessions. Washington pauses or reverses relief, while European governments argue that Minsk used prisoners as bargaining chips.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.3%
Tickers
- MOS+1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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