Possible scenario
Managed Détente Expands
38% Chance
Lukashenko treats the pardons as the opening round of a transactional bargain with Washington. The White House and OFAC respond with phased sanctions relief tied to additional prisoner releases, especially around potash exports and financial payment channels.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.6%
Tickers
- MOS-2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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