Possible scenario
Talks Cautiously Resume
38% Chance
Qatar's shuttle diplomacy produces enough common ground for U.S. and Iranian envoys to restart indirect talks, likely in Doha or Muscat. The process remains fragile because Tehran still wants sanctions relief sequencing and Washington wants nuclear and regional-security limits before major concessions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
- Consumer Services +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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