Possible scenario
Stalemate Persists
25% Chance
Qatar keeps the channel open, but the core dispute over sanctions sequencing, enrichment limits, and guarantees remains unresolved. Neither Washington nor Tehran wants to be blamed for collapsing diplomacy, so the process drifts without a meaningful breakthrough.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.