Possible scenario
No Microsoft Deal
18% Chance
The parties fail to agree on economics, customer ownership, service-level guarantees, or strategic control. SpaceXAI still has valuable compute, but it must choose between building its own cloud channel or selling capacity through smaller private arrangements.
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.2%
- Technology +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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