Possible scenario
Managed Reintegration Advances
42% Chance
The most likely path is a controlled, phased implementation of the January Damascus-SDF merger agreement. Arab rallies in Hasakah give Ahmed al-Sharaa's government leverage to press for visible state authority, while the SDF avoids a direct confrontation that could fracture northeast governance.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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