Possible scenario
Implementation Stalls
28% Chance
The merger deal remains formally intact but slows under pressure from competing Arab, Kurdish, and Damascus priorities. Both sides avoid open conflict, yet practical transfers of policing, taxation, and border administration remain incomplete.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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