Possible scenario
Limited Military Exchange
28% Chance
Washington concludes that the tanker attacks require a direct deterrent response. The confrontation remains below full war, but U.S. or allied strikes on IRGC naval assets raise the risk of retaliation against vessels, bases, or energy infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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