Possible scenario
Hormuz Disruption Deepens
20% Chance
The tanker attacks push insurers, shipowners, and charterers to curtail Gulf liftings even without a formal closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The practical effect is a partial export disruption for Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +6.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-4.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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