Possible scenario
Escorted Shipping Stabilizes
37% Chance
The U.S. Fifth Fleet, UK Maritime Trade Operations, and Gulf navies expand escorted transits through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran keeps up threats but avoids directly challenging warships, allowing most Saudi, Kuwaiti, Emirati, and Qatari exports to continue.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
- Industrials +0.3%
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.