Possible scenario
Russia Cooperation Deepens
25% Chance
The drone inspection is followed by further evidence that North Korea is scaling arms production for both domestic use and shipments connected to Russia's war in Ukraine. Moscow continues to shield Pyongyang diplomatically, limiting the effectiveness of UN enforcement mechanisms.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
- Technology -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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