Possible scenario
Regional Tension Rises
20% Chance
North Korea pairs the drone-line inspection with a more provocative operational move near the Korean Peninsula. The likelihood is lower than routine signaling, but Pyongyang has a history of using weapons tests to answer international criticism.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.