Possible scenario
Unrest Broadens Nationally
23% Chance
The parental-liability order becomes a rallying point for unions, parents’ associations, and opposition parties. Instead of isolating rioters, the crackdown broadens the dispute into a wider anti-austerity and civil-liberties confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.1%
- Finance -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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