Possible scenario
Hard Line Stabilizes
38% Chance
Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu maintains the order making parents liable for school protest damage, while police and prefectures prioritize reopening schools. The most likely path is a gradual decline in unrest as arrests, court summonses, and financial penalties deter participation.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.