Possible scenario
Government Offers Concessions
27% Chance
Lecornu’s government decides that the political cost of a prolonged confrontation is too high. It opens negotiations with unions and education groups, potentially softening the parental-liability order while preserving some penalties for proven vandalism.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
- Finance +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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