Possible scenario
Rating auction scare
20% Chance
The market begins to price a more abrupt credit reassessment after Fitch and Scope already downgraded France. A weak bond auction or negative signal from Moody's or S&P Global would reinforce the idea that France's debt trajectory is no longer being treated as semi-core euro-area risk.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -2.6%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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