Possible scenario
Political deadlock repricing
32% Chance
The spread widening becomes a political event, hardening positions in the Assemblée nationale and raising doubts about delivery of the €43 billion savings plan. Investors demand a higher French risk premium because the fiscal path depends on fragile parliamentary arithmetic rather than a durable majority.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -2.2%
- Utilities -1.4%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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