Possible scenario
Republican Countermobilization
22% Chance
Obama's appearance could energize Republicans by nationalizing the contest and giving Rogers a high-profile target. The GOP may frame El-Sayed as too progressive for Michigan and use the rally to raise money and mobilize conservative turnout.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.