Possible scenario
Sanctions Response Widens
20% Chance
Washington, London, and Brussels could treat the pilot-recruitment drive as evidence of a broader military pipeline between Russia and Iran. The most likely response is targeted designations against aviation entities, trainers, procurement agents, and dual-use parts networks rather than sweeping new sanctions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
Tickers
- LMT+0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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