Possible scenario
Pressure Campaign Deepens
40% Chance
The Trump administration treats Rubio's statement as a marker that diplomacy has stalled and shifts emphasis back to sanctions enforcement, oil-export interdiction, and allied pressure. This is the most likely path because Iran has rejected recent U.S. demands while Washington is already framing Tehran as responsible for missed opportunities.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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