Possible scenario
Backchannel Talks Reopen
30% Chance
Despite public criticism from Rubio, Qatar and Oman continue shuttle diplomacy to keep a pathway open. Both Washington and Tehran have incentives to prevent an uncontrolled escalation, especially if talks can be framed as technical rather than political concessions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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