Possible scenario
Razor-Thin Count
17% Chance
The reduced rural early-vote lead is real, but neither campaign establishes a decisive advantage. The result turns on provisional ballots, late-arriving absentees, and county-level turnout differences too small to infer clearly before Election Day.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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